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David Ross reportedly rejects Yankees’ offer to join staff
Former Chicago Cubs manager David Ross had one year left on his contract with the team when he was fired earlier this month, but according to a new report, he is being deliberate in selecting his next role.
According to Ken Rosenthal and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Ross was offered a role as the New York Yankees’ bench coach shortly after he was fired by the Cubs, but turned the Bronx Bombers down.
“Ross would prefer to manage if he immediately jumps back into a uniformed position,” according to the report.
I didn’t figure it was possible, but the Astros have found something even more annoying than the frequently cited “discomfort” used for most injuries: Using “the back of his baseball card” to justify why the organization is confident certain players will eventually bounce back from his early season struggles. Dana Brown and Joe Espada have used that term, as recently as Wednesday, with the former using it for Josh Hader and the latter for José Abreu.
So, that’s great…
In all fairness to Espada, he was placed in a tough spot. Part of his job as manager is to shield his players from outside criticism, as much as fans don’t like it. While I am not crazy about him repeating the phrase, I get it. I found his decision to pinch-hit Jon Singleton for Abreu in the eighth inning on Wednesday more indicative of his actual thoughts on the matter, at least at that moment. Some of that sentiment also applies to Brown, although the general manager citing back of baseball card stats is a bit of a red flag.
Enough about irritating phrases, though. Let’s cut to the chase that Abreu has become a liability thus far as both a hitter and a fielder.
The latter we’ve known about for a while, dating back to his days with the White Sox. That’s not a surprising development. There were no grand delusions about his defense back when he signed two offseasons ago. Offensively, perhaps. Either way, the Astros are paying Abreu — a hefty $19.5 million per season — to hit and hit he has not. It was already bad enough last year when the veteran first baseman slashed .237/.296/.383 with an 86 wRC+. A brief resurgence late in the season and the postseason following an IL stint boosted his numbers, but, overall, it was a fairly poor first campaign in Houston.
The hope entering 2024 was that Abreu’s back would be able to stave off Father Time a bit longer and he could at least maintain an average level of production as a hitter. Yes, an overpay based on his salary, but considering how the first season unfolded, it would’ve represented an upgrade. But that’s the thing about time, it remains undefeated. Abreu already had red flags prior to signing with the Astros and those issues at least persisted through 2023. Alas, instead of staving it off for another season, Abreu’s decline has only accelerated based on his first 57 plate appearances. I shared a similar image in one of my posts from last week, but it bears repeating.
We’re looking at the Statcast profile of one of the worst hitters in Major League Baseball right now. The results from this season (.078/.158/.098, -22 wRC+) are not on the back of a baseball card yet and certainly back it up. By wRC+ of all hitters with at least 50 plate appearances this season, Abreu comes up last. By fWAR, only Nick Castellanos (-1.0) has cost his team more than the first baseman (-0.9). With already below-average defense, it was clear that Abreu would have to produce at the plate to justify his contract. Instead, he is arguably an even worse hitter than he is a fielder this year and his defense isn’t worth bragging about. That’s quite a precipitous, and unfortunate, decline for a player with his résumé. I write all of this knowing that 57 plate appearances are a small sample, but there are instances when the results AND the numbers under the hood are so dreadful that you can’t outright ignore it any longer.
Abreu’s struggles at the plate are clear. He can’t seem to hit any pitch, regardless of its classification. The only pitches that he doesn’t have a negative run value against so far are sinkers, slurves, and sweepers, coming at 0 run value. He already has a -3 run value against four-seam fastballs and sliders. Personally, I think his bat speed has declined to the point where he can’t keep up with even high eighties to low nineties fastballs, even if there is a bit of movement. Take the below cutter from Jesse Chavez on Wednesday afternoon.
Against in-zone fastballs, Abreu’s whiff rate has skyrocketed from 16.1% in 2023 to 37%. Out-of-zone whiffs against fastballs have also climbed from 30.8% to 43.8%. Once opposing pitchers find out that a hitter can’t keep up with fastballs, especially in the strike zone, then they’re going to pepper him with — surprise — more fastballs. Abreu saw a fastball nearly 58% of the time last season; this season, it is up to 62.5%. By simply throwing less breaking stuff, pitchers are daring him to hit a fastball. So far, he hasn’t forced pitches to throw him any differently. For example, against in-zone fastballs with a velocity of 94 MPH or less, Abreu has swung and missed 4% of the time this season. In 2021, that rate was 1.9%. In 2022, it was 1.6%. In 2023, it was only 1.2%. Again, once pitchers know that a hitter can’t catch up with a fastball, especially thrown in the zone, at that level of velocity, it is only a matter of time.
So, what do the Astros do with Abreu?
Well, the organization is at a crossroads. It is certainly possible to DFA the veteran first baseman and this could be the probable course of action if these struggles continue at this pace. Injury, possibly back-related as it was last season, immediately comes to mind with this recent slump. But the club nor Abreu hasn’t indicated that his back is a problem. But the fact that Abreu is owed the remainder of his $19.5 million salary this season and its entirety for next season likely keeps the organization from DFA’ing him…yet. I also wouldn’t be shocked if he spends some time on the IL in hopes that an extended break can prove beneficial instead of outright releasing him.
Another option is to limit Abreu’s exposure by reducing his playing time. Joey Loperfido is a popular choice right now, but it sounds like Brown values the prospect more as a utility player. Plus, it was mentioned that Loperfido needs to cut back on strikeouts (33.3% in 78 PA), which makes sense to some degree. I’d argue that it can’t be worse than Abreu’s production, or lack thereof but an organization ought to tread cautiously when rushing the development to mask an issue on the major league roster. Trey Cabbage and David Hensley are other names to watch with first base experience, if not uninspiring, with Jon Singleton also in line to receive more playing time in the short term. None of them likely represent substantial upgrades at the moment, but possibly preferable to Abreu’s continued level of play.
Another possibility is to sign another first baseman such as Brandon Belt as a platoon partner with the right-handed Abreu. Theoretically, the left-handed Belt would help bolster the lineup against right-handed pitchers while limiting Abreu’s exposure. He could also step in full-time if Abreu is placed on the IL or released at any point. But any salary demands from Belt, even if he can be signed on a relative discount considering it is already April, are likely mitigated by additional tax implications.
Ultimately, Abreu’s performance thus far exceeds any slow start chatter that has normally accompanied him in his career. The Astros now have a season-plus of data and that is more important than what he did pre-2023 on a baseball card. It has become increasingly clear that something has to change, sooner rather than later. At this point, there are a variety of options to pursue, but it isn’t clear which way the front office is leaning. But with Jeff Bagwell in Sugar Land with minor league coordinators, even with Trey Cabbage starting at first base, you have to wonder if the club is starting to, at least internally, weigh its options.
